[sumo] Fwd: 2026 Nagoya basho predictions! The Isegahama takeover begins
Jeff A
jpaitv at gmail.com
Sat Jul 11 12:20:30 EDT 2026
For your perusal.
Gaijingai
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Sumo Stomp! <sumostomp at substack.com>
Date: Sat, Jul 11, 2026 at 9:07 AM
Subject: 2026 Nagoya basho predictions! The Isegahama takeover begins
To: <jpaitv at gmail.com>
Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler
competing in the top division at the July tournament.
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for more
2026 Nagoya basho predictions! The Isegahama takeover begins
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my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in
the top division at the July tournament.
Tim Edwards <https://substack.com/@sumostomp>
Jul 11
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The Nagoya basho starts this weekend!
Before the festivities (and my daily tournament updates), it’s time for me
to try and predict the win-loss records for every wrestler in the top two
divisions. That’s right, I’m doing *jūryō* predictions, too. That’s a first
for me.
Enjoy!
------------------------------
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------------------------------
The bonus gif today is a man I’m predicting will have a tough time this
month.
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“I’ll
show you…”
12 wins
-
Y1e Hōshōryū
-
S1e Atamifuji
My prediction for the 2026 Nagoya *basho* is a play-off between Hōshōryū
and Atamifuji. If that comes to fruition, I think it’s a toss up between
those two who takes it. Hōshōryū has more talent, in my opinion, but
Atamifuji’s size causes him problems.
I thought *Hōshōryū* was in a great spot to challenge for the title in May.
He seemed recovered from his various injuries and the prospect of not
having to face either Ōnosato or Aonishiki would have made the field a lot
easier for him. It wasn’t meant to be, though. I don’t think the hamstring
injury is going to carry over into this tournament. He’s looking very good
on exhibition and in some open practises. If Ōnosato and Aonishiki might
still be a little rusty, so this might be a very good opportunity for
Hōshōryū to add to his slightly underwhelming *yushō* haul.
I like the progression I’ve seen with *Atamifuji* this year. He hasn’t been
flashy, but he’s slowly and gradually improved his ranking and standing in
the sport. And he’s still only 23. He’s always had great size and his
*yotsu-zumō* (grappling) is extremely good; especially when he uses
*gaburi-yori* (torso thrusting). His mentality let him down in the past. He
used to get nervous before the big matches. But he seems to have conquered
that and even developed a bit of a mean streak. I think that’s all a good
sign for a Atami-pudding *yushō* in the very near future.
11 wins
-
Y1w Ōnosato
This is assuming that *Ōnosato* is able to make it through fifteen days of
competition. He’s listed for day one and just blanked Kotozakura in eleven
practise bouts. I think we might see something similar to what we saw in
January. In that tournament, Ōnosato was compromised, but still able to
compete through the entire *basho*. In that tournament he used his size and
athleticism to rush opponents out but, at times, was clearly babying his
shoulder, especially in prolonged and more arduous matches. He went 10-5
then.
This is wishful thinking from me. There’s a good chance that a few hard
*tachiai* might land Ōnosato back on the sidelines. Hopefully that doesn’t
happen, though.
10 wins
-
O1e Kirishima
-
S2w Aonishiki
-
K1e Yoshinofuji
-
M13w Takerufuji
*Kirishima* has been the best wrestler of 2026 and I think he’s going to
pick up where he left off in May. However, I think the field will be a lot
more challenging for him this time around. I think that means he’ll get a
good record, but fall short of being a serious title challenger. He does
have a shot at becoming a *yokozuna* in this tournament. But he’ll probably
need at least a 14-1 record and the *yushō*. That’s a very tough ask
anyway. But with Ōnosato, Hōshōryū and Aonishiki back in action, I think
that might be an impossible task.
I think the *san’yaku *is going to be very good this month and that they
might feast on the *jōi* at this tournament. We’ve got a very good
collection of wrestlers in these upper rankings, including the returning
Aonishiki and the debuting Yoshinofuji.
I’m predicting *Aonishiki* gets the ten wins he needs to get immediately
promoted back to *ōzeki*. He was found out in March, with his opponents
targeting his freestyle wrestling like posture (with a myriad of methods).
I have faith that, after a tournament off, the young and wildly talented
Ukrainian has figured out how to get back to winning ways (perhaps through
an embrace of more classical sumo?).
*Yoshinofuji* has progressed a lot this year. He just looks like he belongs
at this level and soon, I bet, we’re going to start seeing him belong at an
even higher level than this. He has off-the-charts athleticism and a
fantastic mindset. He has room to grow, technically, but I don’t think that
will hold him back in this tournament.
I have Yoshinofuji’s stablemate *Takerufuji* getting double digits on his
return to the top division. I think he has a very friendly ranking at this
tournament (M13) and I was very impressed with how he finished the last
tournament.
I’ve picked three Isegahama guys to get 10+ wins. It’s going to be hard to
ignore just how stacked that stable is right now (thanks to JSA
shenanigans, of course).
9 wins
-
S1w Kotoshōhō
-
M3w Hakunofuji
-
M7w Takayasu
-
M8e Wakamotoharu
-
M11e Wakanoshō
-
M16w Asakōryū
I have *Kotoshōhō* doing well in this tournament, too. I’ve doubted him
during this current career surge, but I think he’ll continue to win at
*sekiwake*. He seems to have reined in his chaotic tendencies this year
and, if he can continue to do that, I think he can establish himself in the
*san’yaku*.
I think *Hakunofuji* will join his high-level Isegahama comrades in doing
well at this tournament. I’ve been a big fan of him ever since he was
Ochiai. He’s the only wrestler in the *jōi* that I’ve predicted a winning
record for (not fighting Yoshinofuji and Atamifuji will help with that).
*Takayasu* and *Wakamotoharu* have low rankings, for them, at this
tournament. They should be good enough to a winning record here.
I like what I saw from *Wakanoshō* in the last tournament. He really
reminds me of his stable master Takakeishō.
*Asakōryū* will have a lot of motivation to get a winning record. Any
losing record will put him in *jūryō*. I think that means we’ll see more
than a few *henka* out of him this month.
8 wins
-
M5w Ōshōma
-
M6e Shōdai
-
M7e Kotoeihō
-
M9e Fujiryoga
-
M10e Asanoyama
-
M12e Asahakūryū
-
M12w Abi
-
M15e Ōnokatsu
-
M15w Kazuma
-
M16e Daiseizen
I have *Ōshōma* leading the bare-minimum brigade at this tournament. He’s
not bad when he’s lurking just outside the *jōi*. He’s still pretty
inconsistent, though. So I won’t be surprised if he actually ends up going
2-13 or something.
*Shōdai* still has some gas left in the tank and I think he can skirt by,
despite being ranked somewhat high.
I think *Kotoeihō* and *Fujiryoga* will follow up their career highs with
under-the-radar *kachi-koshi*. I think they have decent futures, but I
don’t see them getting into a title race for the second tournament in a row.
I’m still choosing to see a lot of potential in *Asahakūryū*, despite how
disappointing he was in the last tournaments. If his teammate *Asanoyama*
is healthy, I think he’s good enough to get 8-7.
*Abi*’s gotta get a winning record at this rank, right?
*Ōnokatsu* only went down to *jūryō* because he was hurt. He looked in good
shape in the second half of the May tournament. *Kazuma* and *Daiseizan*
are our two rookies for the tournament. I think both has some upside, but
I’m not expecting very big things from them right now.
7 wins
-
K1w Ōhō
-
M2e Gōnoyama
-
M2w Churanoumi
-
M6w Fujiseun
-
M8w Rōga
-
M11w Mitakeumi
-
M14w Kinbōzan
Ōhō’s record at *komusubi* has been abysmal. I think he’ll be the odd-man
out in the *san’yaku*, with everyone else doing very well.
*Gōnoyama* and *Churanoumi* are two of the *jōi* wrestlers I expect to
suffer for all the *san’yaku*’s successes. *Fujiseun*, *Rōga*, *Mitakeumi*
and *Kinbōzan* have all been treading water this year. I think they’ll end
up with one too many losses in Nagoya.
6 wins
-
M1w Takanoshō
-
M4e Daieisho
-
M9w Tobizaru
-
M13e Nishikifuji
-
M14w Shishi
*Takanoshō* and *Daieishō* fit into my strong *san’yaku* theory. With them
being a little older, too, I think they might struggle.
*Tobizaru* had a big tournament in May. I think this will be a letdown
*basho* for him. I think *Nishikifuji* and *Shishi* will struggle. Both are
at their ceilings here and I can see them yo-yo-ing between *makuuchi* and
*jūryō* over the next few tournaments.
5 wins
-
O1w Kotozakura
-
M1e Fujinokawa
-
M5e Ura
-
M10w Chiyoshōma
I keep sticking my neck out for *Kotozakura*, expecting a return to the
form that saw him win his lone *yushō* in November 2024. It’s just not
happening, though. I think his size/shape is effecting his ability to stay
healthy. And his body language has been very poor this year. I think
there’s a strong chance he loses his *ōzeki* ranking at this tournament.
*Fujinokawa* is another *jōi* boy I think will struggle. He hasn’t looked
at home at this ranking, yet, and those *san’yaku *boys are starting to
figure him out.
*Ura* and *Chiyoshōma* are both ranked a little too high for their
comfort-level. I think, despite their creativity, they will find it hard to
get wins in July.
4 wins
-
M4w Ichiyamamoto
I love me some *Ichiyamamoto*. But I think he’ll have the most trouble of
all these *jōi* wrestlers. He’s been lucky (?) to keep a high ranking
lately, despite losing records, and I think that means he’s in for a very
tough time in July.
0 wins
-
S2e Wakatakakage
*Wakatakakage* won’t be at this tournament. Reports state that he had
potentially life saving surgery a few weeks ago. Hopefully he gets healthy
soon, regardless if he competes.
Jūryō
-
J4w Toshinofuji: 11-4
-
J8e Midorifuji: 10-5
-
J2e Tokihayate, J5e Kitanowaka, J5w Ōshōumi, J6e Shōnannoumi, J7w
Meisei: 9-6
-
J1e Asasuiryū, J4 Tomokaze, J6e Kazekeno, J7e Tamawashi, J9e Shirokuma,
J10e Hitoshi, J11w Enhō, J12w Kayo, J13e Arashifuji: 8-7
-
J1w Kyokukaiyū, J2w Sadanoumi, J8w Hatsuyama, J9w Nishinoryū, J10w
Tamashoho, J12e Tōhakuryū: 7-8
-
J3e Ryūden, J3w Dewanoryū, J11e Kagayaki, J14e Tochitaikai, J14w
Nishikigi: 6-9
-
J13w Hakuyozan: 0-0-15
*Toshinofuji* is my pick to win the second division title. I love his size
and his *yotsu* skills. He lacked consistency in May. That was his debut
tournament in *jūryō*. This time around, I think he’ll be able to put in a
complete fifteen day performance. I think *Asahifuji* is going to win
*makushita* this month. So that means I’m predicting a possible Isegahama
sweep (if Atamifuji comes out on top in *makuuchi*) of the top three
divisions.
And look, I have *Midorifuji* doing well, too. I think *Tokihayate*,
*Ōshōumi* and *Tamawashi* will land on their feet. I like what I saw from
*Shōnannoumi* and *Kitanowaka* last time out. There could be *makuuchi *returns
in their futures. *Meisei* has been stuck down here for an uncomfortably
long time. The former *sekiwake* has to show some improvement this month.
I think the *jūryō* field is pretty evenly matched, as a whole. I think
there will be lots of 8-7 and 7-8 records. I’ve taken some coin flips on a
few of those wrestlers. Sadly, I think *Nishikigi* might finish with one of
the worst records. That Nagoya tournament in 2023, where he looked like a
possible champ, feels like a distant memory now.
------------------------------
Well, there are my picks. What are yours?
Leave a comment
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Next up from me… daily tournament updates!!! I can’t wait.
Tim
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